The EU proposals have now moved on and the process continues to evolve. ADAS is currently evaluating the most recent proposals in several projects which cover several crops which include cereals, oilseed rape and potatoes. These full reports, for a range of clients, including HGCA and PCL, should be available in March 2009. This work also includes an assessment of the impacts other likely losses of pesticides, such as from Water Framework Directive.
These are some interim conclusions from the work so far:
- There is still much uncertainty but it is likely that, although still a significant effect, the latest proposals for regulation will be less severe than earlier proposals for many crops. They are likely to still have a major impact in some crops including potatoes and in horticulture. Much will depend on the detailed proposals and
how they are implemented.
- Our recent work is indicating that, for certain crops and situations, the Water Framework Directive may have an even greater impact than the proposed pesticide regulation directive. For instance, we have already highlighted that the long-term prospects of the oilseed rape crop in the UK are at risk if a range of pesticides become unavailable, or impractical to use, because they are appearing in water. It is therefore important to find and implement practical measures which protect water and allow effective pesticide use.
For more information click here where you can download a handout of a presentation made on 9 December 2008.
Our report to HGCA on crop protection priorities in cereals and oilseeds has now been published on the HGCA web site and can be obtained via this link. A similar report covering potatoes, for Potato Council, will be available very soon.
In June 2008 ADAS completed a report on the impacts of the potential impacts of proposals being drafted by the European Commission and European Parliament. The executive summary and full report are available
The key findings were:
- Even the lowest impact proposal (Commission exclusion) reduces production by approximately 25%.
- In many situations, the Commission substitution and Parliament exclusion have similar outcomes, reducing production by 35-45%. However, on vegetable brassicas there is a difference between these two proposals, with lower impact from Commission substitution.
- Parliament substitution has the most severe impact, with all crops seeing reductions in production of at least 53%. However, this proposal in particular would lead to some crops becoming uneconomic to grow and substantial re-structuring of the industry, which would need further detailed quantification.
- In all cases, a significant increase in crop area would be required to make up the shortfall in production. Such land is beyond that readily available through small changes to cropping patterns.
- The driving effect is different on individual crops, although very often is a result of lower levels of disease control. On wheat, loss of weed control also has a major effect, while on vegetable brassicas, lack of pest control becomes a major issue under the two Parliament proposals.
- A key issue to be addressed will be to determine appropriate strategies to minimise the development of pesticide resistance.
- There will need to be a full understanding throughout the food chain of the impact of these proposals on fresh food quality, continuity of supply and seasonality.
James Clarke of ADAS presented the findings, and extrapolated them to predict the potential impacts on food prices, to a meeting on Friday 6 June. His conclusion was that the potential impact on prices of the EC proposals would be that farmers would require 25% increase in price to make up for lost production if they were to maintain their margins. This rises to over 100% for the European Parliament proposals. Without these potential price rises crops such as vegetable brassicas would be uneconomic to produce in the UK. A summary of James's presentation and the other presentations (as .pdfs) and meeting conclusions are available at http://www.bcpc.org/Events/FoodChainForum/index.asp.
To download the Executive summary click here; to download the full report click here.